Popularity of clerics, religion on the rise

In a postwar Iraq tormented by violence and uncertainty, the men with the power are in robes and turbans – Muslim clerics counseling spiritual renewal and active defiance of the United States and the Iraqi government it backs.

In the 18 months since Saddam Hussein's regime fell, Shiite and Sunni clerics alike have shot to prominence, eclipsing the U.S.-backed politicians in business suits who returned from exile to form a ruling class but found themselves sorely lacking the clergy's popularity.

The emergence of religion as a force has started a trend that might be difficult to reverse in this conservative nation. It raises the possibility of an Islamic-oriented regime that could fall well short of the U.S. goal of a secular democracy serving as a model for the rest of the Arab world.

A radical Shiite faction and the Association of Muslim Scholars, a fundamentalist group that has emerged as the symbol of Iraq's Sunni Arabs, both maintain that no credible election can be held while foreign troops remain in Iraq.

The Shiite faction led by cleric Muqtada al-Sadr is being courted by moderate Shiite parties seeking to capitalize on its popularity to gain votes in January.

The scholars' association, likewise, could have a big say in whether voting can take place in Sunni areas worst hit by violence.

Since Hussein's ouster, many Iraqis have found refuge in Islam, something analysts attribute in large part to the perceived injustices of foreign occupation and the economic fallout from the soaring crime and unemployment that followed.

"People have returned to their Islamic values because they are solid and they never change," said Baghdad University political scientist Nabil Salem. "In a time of adversity and challenge, a return to religion unites everyone."

"There isn't an effective political force in Iraq except religious groups," said Islamic columnist Fahmi Howeidi, an Egyptian and a moderate Islamic voice in pan-Arab publications. "The nationalists have vanished, the secularists are seen as traitors and the voice of the intelligentsia is not heard outside Baghdad."

Analysts consider it unlikely that a theocracy like Iran's or the Afghan Taliban's could emerge. But they acknowledge it may take suppression to prevent Islamists from having the biggest say in running Iraq, and warn that the continuing occupation risks deepening anti-U.S. passions and strengthening the militants.