BAGHDAD, Iraq - In an Iraq (news - web sites) torn by uncertainty, Shiite Muslim clerics are easing into the role of the nation's guardians and protectors of the faith — a newfound power that many see as a harbinger of a future in which the clergy shapes the country's politics.
The prospect of an Iranian-style, clergy-ruled state is dismissed by some as unrealistic, given Iraq's ethnic and religious diversity and the secular traditions of its educated classes. But the influence of Shiite clergy is so huge that the possibility cannot be ruled out.
"In my view, an Islamic state can be set up in Iraq, but it will be an Islamic state of the Iraqi variety," said Grand Ayatollah Mohammed Taqi al-Modaresi, a senior cleric from the holy city of Karbala. "It will be an Islamic state that's open toward other civilizations."
An Islamic state or an administration with a heavy religious slant would leave the Bush administration in an awkward position: replacing a brutal dictator with a government likely to share the widespread, regional resentment toward the United States as the power behind Israel, the nemesis of Arabs and Muslims. Such a government would also sympathize with Shiite Iran.
Portraits of the late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, father of Iran's 1979 Islamic revolution, adorn the walls of virtually every Shiite cleric's office in Iraq. Shiite politicians and clerics often praise Iran, Iraq's foe in a ruinous 1980-88 war. And Islam's strict dress code for women is enforced by Muslim activists in mainly Shiite areas in Baghdad and across southern Iraq.
Dozens of liquor stores owned by Christians have been torched in recent months and graffiti declaring Islam as the best ideology for Iraq can be found virtually everywhere.
Iraq's tilt toward Islamic fundamentalism began after the 1991 Gulf War, when Saddam Hussein tried to cash in on an Islamic revival by initiating a "campaign of faith" that cast off some of the secular vestiges of his ruling Baath Party and increased the dose of religion in the state-run media. Nightclubs and bars were shut and restaurants were barred from serving alcohol.
Iraq's U.S.-led occupation authorities are wary of the rise of the Shiite clergy's political fortunes in recent months, something that Washington planners may not have counted on in a post-Saddam Iraq.
Their concerns are focused on radical clerics as well the moderate and vastly popular ones.
Coalition authorities have, for example, resisted demands for an early election, fearing that radical Shiite groups, as well as remnants of the banned Baath Party, could regain a foothold in government at the expense of U.S.-allied parties.
A well-placed official with the U.S.-led coalition said that while there undoubtedly are some among the clergy who want to see an Islamic state, they constitute a small percentage. Many Iraqis see the importance of separating government and religion, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Most prominent among the moderates is Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Hussein al-Sistani, an Iranian-born cleric who does not subscribe to the notion of an Iranian-style Islamic republic but whose views on the U.S.-sponsored political process for Iraq have proven impossible to ignore.
Already, al-Sistani has forced Washington to scrap a political blueprint for Iraq that provided for a new constitution and a democratic government by the end of 2004. He insisted the constitution must be written by elected delegates.
A new plan was announced Nov. 15 but soon ran into trouble over his demand that a transitional assembly be elected and not chosen in regional caucuses.
Al-Sistani enjoys the support of most Shiites, who make up about 60 percent of Iraq's population, and has the support of many Shiite politicians, including Governing Council president Abdel-Aziz al-Hakim.
Governing Council member Samir Shakir Mahmoud, a Sunni, said al-sistani's views are part of the ongoing dialogue. "We listen to every view, but no one has a veto," Mahmoud said.
Al-Hakim has defended al-Sistani against charges of meddling in politics, arguing that, as a senior religious authority, he had a right to guard Iraq's interests.
"It is the inherent right of religious authorities to defend the destiny of the nation and the rights of the people," al-Hakim said. "He does not represent a political movement nor is he a political figure, but he works for the protection of the interest of all Iraqis regardless of their faith."
The Shiite faith has its roots in a dispute over who succeeds Islam's 7th century Prophet Muhammad. Its followers in Iraq long were oppressed by minority Sunnis, and many lived in constant fear under Saddam, himself a Sunni. Their clerics were often targeted, with several assassinated, executed or driven into exile, along with tens of thousands of Shiites. Saddam's troops put down a Shiite uprising in 1991, killing tens of thousands.