The Muslim population in the United States will be larger than the Jewish population by 2040, according to a new study by the Pew Research Center.
Earlier this year, Pew estimated that are currently 3.45 million Muslims by religion in America, around 1.1% of the U.S. population. In 2013, Pew estimated that there were 4.2 million Jews by religion in America (1.8% of the U.S. adult population), but 5.3 million Jews if one also counted “Jews of no religion,” such as atheists or non-affiliated people raised by a Jewish parent.
By 2050, Pew said, the Muslim population will reach 8.1 million, or 2.1% of the U.S. population.
Pew said in its latest that the rise in the Muslim population would be driven by American Muslims’ relatively high birthrates, as well as the continued migration of Muslims to the United States (although changes in immigration policy could affect those numbers).
In addition to higher birthrates than Jews, Muslims appear to be less likely to marry outside the faith: Only 13% of Muslims have a non-Muslim spouse, compared to 36% of Jews having a non-Jewish spouse.