Many American Christians expect earthquakes for the apocalypse; but according to pollster George Barna, the Earth is already moving under their feet.
The seismic tremors are in the rates of church attendance, Bible reading, church volunteerism, faith in scripture and belief in the nature of God. Those and other facts jump out in the latest research by Barna's California-based organization.
"Overall, the picture is not pretty though it falls somewhat short of disaster," he writes in an opinion piece on his blog. "Adult Sunday school could easily go the way of the all-but-forgotten midweek service. The percentage of unchurched people will probably continue to climb."
Barna surveyed 1,621 adults in January looked at changes in religious belief and behavior in the 20 years since 1991. Here’s what fell:
Adult church attendance, falling 9 percent to 40 percent today.
Belief in the Bible as "totally accurate in all of the principles it teaches," to 38 percent, or an 8-point drop.
Volunteer work at churches, from 27 percent to 19 percent.
Bible reading, falling 5 points to 40 percent per week.
Two-thirds of Americans still agree that God is “the all-knowing, all-powerful and perfect Creator of the universe who still rules the world today” -- but that’s a 7-point drop from the 1991 level.
Some categories are holding steady. One is the 84 percent of Americans who call themselves Christian, and the 56 percent who say their religious faith is "very important." Also stable is the 65 percent who say they have made a “personal commitment to Jesus Christ that is still important in my life today.”
A slightly different group, "born-again" Christians, is still growing. They totaled 35 percent of respondents in the 1991 Barna survey; now they’re 40 percent. (Barna calls them born again if they believe "they will experience eternal salvation based on their commitment to Jesus Christ, personal confession of sins, and acceptance of Christ as their savior.")
But another group is growing faster: the unchurched, those who have not attended in six months aside from ceremonies like a wedding or funeral. Twenty years ago, they totaled 24 percent of Americans; now they’re 37 percent.
In his blog, Barna takes a closer look inside the stats. For instance, the fall in church and Sunday school attendance has begun to level off in the last decade. Also, Barna says the fall in attendance has been mostly among Baby Boomers, rather than young adults, as some analysts have said.
Also, although the national percentage of avowed Christians has changed little, the "sub-national" change is notable -- rising by 10 points in the Northeast, falling seven points in the Midwest.
On the negative side, Barna says that "orthodox" views of God and the accuracy of the Bible have accelerated -- holding fairly steady until 2001, then sliding fast in recent years.
One might also could ask: If many people have squishy ideas of God and the Bible, and they’re casual about even attending church, let alone helping there, exactly how are they showing their beliefs? That apparently worries Barna, too.
"If existing tendencies continue, then we will likely see an increase in the numbers of people who do not accept a conventional definition of God’s character and those who reject the accuracy of the principles taught in the scriptures," he says in his blog.
Barna has always been a refreshing voice among Christian researchers. His stance is pro-Christian but unblinkingly honest, yet not fearmongering. And when he states an opinion, he can back it up.
And he has more to say on this topic: This is just the first in an eight-day analysis of his January survey. Bookmark both links above.