Baghdad, Iraq - Iraq's Shi'ite and Sunni Arabs have circled each other with mutual suspicion since a new Shi'ite-led government was formed in April, with the merest rumour or dispute risking the onset of violence.
Which is why recent unsubstantiated talk and some fiddling with numbers is threatening to keep them sharply at odds as they embark on the delicate task of writing a constitution.
Rumours have always been pervasive in postwar Iraq -- so common that at one point the U.S. military set up a special unit to track them -- and have begun swirling again, with sectarian overtones, since the new government came to power.
One tale doing the rounds has it that the son of the head of the Muslim Clerics Association, an influential Sunni Muslim group, recently met Israeli officials in Qatar to enlist their help in campaigning for the next election.
No one is sure where the hearsay originated, but it was repeated by a Shi'ite cleric in a sermon at a Najaf mosque 10 days ago, subsequently broadcast on television, and has since been relayed myriad times on the street despite firm denials.
The rumour appears carefully crafted. The suggestion of such a meeting with officials from the Jewish state is guaranteed to cause uproar among Arabs. And the idea the Muslim Clerics Association is preparing to contest the next election in six months or so, having urged a boycott of the last poll, appears designed to spur Shi'ites to turn out and vote.
What is more, the rumour does not directly taint the head of the Muslim Clerics Association, Harith al-Dhari, but his son, leaving room for Shi'ites to continue talks with Dhari and other Sunnis over the constitution, even as the charge festers.
The rumours flow in the other direction, too -- the Shi'ite interior minister is said to be purging Sunnis from the ministry, despite a lack of evidence -- ensuring that both sects remain in a near-constant state of mutual suspicion.
While many Sunni and Shi'ite leaders dismiss the gossip as nonsense and do not want it to distract from the serious issues at stake in writing the constitution, they are also aware many Iraqis hear the rumours and believe them, at least in part.
SECTARIAN MATHS
The spread of loose talk may be one thing, but potentially more problematic is a growing dispute over each sect's numbers.
Iraq's Sunni Arabs, once dominant under Saddam Hussein, are widely accepted to make up about 20 percent of the population, and the now dominant Shi'ites 60 percent, although a reliable census has not been conducted for decades -- in which time the population has grown dramatically.
However, many Sunni Arab politicians argue their number is much greater -- as much as 42 percent. As evidence they point to the January election, when turnout was 58 percent.
The percentage that did not vote, they argue, must be Sunni Arabs since it was that community that boycotted the poll.
"Sunni Arabs represent 42 percent of the population, that is clear," said Naji al-Ethawi, a member of the Gathering of the Sunni People, an umbrella group pushing for more Sunni Arab representation in the drafting of the constitution.
"If you include the Kurds and the Turkmen, then Sunnis make up 67 percent of Iraq's population," he said, adding his group has written a book called "The Truth" laying out its case.
Western diplomats involved in talks with Sunni Arabs to bring them into the political process say they have been hearing the 42 percent argument for several weeks and dismiss it. "I just wish they'd get over it," said one recently.
The real debate on the constitution will focus on issues such as federalism, the future of Kirkuk, an oil-rich city claimed by Arabs, Kurds and Turkmen, and the role of Islam.
But the Sunnis, determined to maximise their influence in drafting the basic law, particularly since their boycott of the election left them with only 17 seats in the 275-member parliament, are not letting the issue go.
Initially they were given just two seats on the 55-member committee drawing up the charter. After furious complaints, they were given 13 more, but they say it is not enough. "We need to have 40 percent of the seats," said Ethawi.
For the Shi'ites, the constant demands are a frustration. They see the Sunnis' lack of representation as just reward for not having participated in the election.