BEIJING - China's widening crackdown on unregistered religions coincides with a dramatic rise in the number of Chinese who are embracing faiths, especially Christianity, according to official figures and independent groups.
Critics of the government's stepped-up campaign say Beijing is worried that if more Chinese come to believe in God than in communism, they may organize and threaten the regime. Authorities counter that they are safeguarding society from cults and charlatans who trick the ignorant and endanger public safety.
The truth seems to lie somewhere in between.
On one hand, the practice of religion in China is freer than at any time since the 1949 communist revolution brought to power an atheist leadership, outlawed ''superstitious'' beliefs, and later expelled foreign missionaries from what had been the largest mission country in the world.
At the same time, groups the regime considers a threat to state authority or a public menace are branded as cults and subjected to harsh criminal penalties, including death sentences.
The paradox is that the steady decline in government control during the past two decades means far greater personal liberties for the majority in China - but zero tolerance for a growing number of unorthodox groups that the regime fears are taking those freedoms too far.
As many as 15 million people belong to the official Protestant church and as many as 10 million to the state-sanctioned China Patriotic Catholic church - up from 830,000 and 3 million respectively in the 1950s, according to Yang Huilin, director of the Institute for the Study of Christian Religion at People's University in Beijing.
The number of underground Christians - those who refuse to join approved churches that demand loyalty to the state above God and teach a watered-down version of the creed - is believed to be double the official church membership and rapidly growing, say religious scholars.
If the figures are accurate, it is easy to see why the state might feel threatened: the Christian population of China already may exceed the Communist Party's membership of 50 million.
President Bush raised concerns about religious freedom in China last week during meetings with President Jiang Zemin, following reports that 53 Catholic clerics are being detained or kept under surveillance and that leaders of a banned Protestant sect were sentenced to death.
Jiang responded that China guarantees freedom of religious belief but does not allow activities that break the law. During Bush's 30-hour visit, authorities detained 47 Christians holding an unauthorized prayer meeting outside Beijing, and publicized the earlier arrest of nine Protestant leaders in Hubei province who broke the law by ''recklessly praying, fasting, collecting charity, and distributing promotional material.''
The highest-profile religious crackdown has been on Falun Gong, the meditation group that Beijing branded a cult in 1999. Falun Gong activists say tens of thousands of practioners have been detained or imprisoned, and 1,600 have died in custody. Authorities counter that Falun Gong practices have killed 1,900 followers.
Two weeks ago, a US-based religious watchdog group released what it said were seven classified government documents issued between April 1999 and October 2001 which, if authentic, document a harsh campaign to crush Falun Gong and more than a dozen evangelical sects. The directives order ''banishing, purifying, searching, educating, converting, and controlling'' unregistered believers.
China's Constitution guarantees ''freedom of religious belief'' and protects ''normal religious activities.'' But it stipulates that ''no one may make use of religion to engage in activities that disrupt public order, impair the health of citizens, or interfere with the educational system of the state.'' The religious education of children is forbidden.
Yang notes that China's ''freedom of religious belief'' differs from the Western concept of freedom of religious activity. ''Authorities do not care what you believe. But if you practice publicly or preach ... you have to think about whether it's legal or illegal.''
The state recognizes five religions: Buddhism, Taoism, Protestantism, Catholicism, and Islam. But the number of Chinese faithful is still a minority - estimated at between 200 million and 300 million out of a 1.3 billion population, said Miikka Ruokanen, a Finnish theologian and visiting professor at three Chinese universities.
Buddhism is China's largest faith, but Protestantism is the fastest-growing, with an estimated 2 million Chinese being baptized every year, according to independent scholars and ministers here.
''This is a golden age for religion in China,'' Ruokanen said. ''There is a vacuum of faith and morality, and something is going to fill that vacuum.''
Communism used to be the guiding faith of this country. But after decades of failed ideological campaigns, followed by 20 years of market-style reforms that have moved China far from socialism, many people are searching for something else to believe in.
Communist Party members are required to be atheists, but a minister who spoke on condition of anonymity said he knows ''many, many party members who are Christians, and in Xinjiang province who are Muslims. Religion is growing, but Communist Party membership is not, so [authorities] have reason to be afraid.
''They know what happened in Poland'' with the Catholic Church's involvement in the Solidarity labor union, the cleric added. ''Religion was not the only factor, but it was one factor in the breakdown of communism.''
For unregistered Christians, freedom of worship depends on the attitude of local officials. Some pray openly in churches with neon signs, while others change their meeting places constantly to avoid detection.
Overseas Christian activists say reports that leaked out recently from a Chinese leaders' meeting last December indicate Beijing hopes to pressure unapproved groups that it considers harmless into registering with the government in exchange for being left alone.
A February report from the New York-based Committee for Investigation on Persecution of Religion in China acknowledged there are some heretics who call themselves Christians, but faulted Beijing for ''keeping these communities deprived of Scriptures and books, unable to conduct training seminars, and isolated from the worldwide religious communities who want to help.''
One banned sect that has been accused of kidnapping and trying to convert people is ''Oriental Lightning,'' whose members believe a woman in Henan province is a second Jesus. Another, the banned ''Shouters,'' have shortened the Lord's Prayer to three words - ''Oh, Lord Jesus!'' - which they bellow repeatedly.
A third illegal group is the ''Crying School,'' whose members believe doomsday is imminent and hold three-day sessions of desperate wailing.
''There is so little knowledge and expertise here that some wild religions do appear. People here have a hunger for religion, and many uneducated people will believe almost anything,'' Ruokanen said.
But with only 18 approved Protestant seminaries, China is unable to train enough pastors to meet the growing demand; in rural areas, believers often outnumber ordained ministers by 50,000 to 1. Until that changes, Ruokanen said, ''Christianity will remain a lay movement lacking in theological education, and there is a danger of heresy.''
Falun Gong was targeted ''because they practiced too publicly and wanted people to be converted,'' said Yang, of the religion institute. He suggests ''Christians could take some lessons from the tragedy of Falun Gong.''
For the interests of all, he said, compromise would be the best policy. Scholars ''can try to make the authorities have a more open attitude. On the other side, we can try to persuade religious persons not to be too pushy.''